Welcome to Marinduque-My Island Paradise

If this is your first time in my site, welcome! If you have been a follower, my heartfelt thanks to you, also. Help me achieve my dream, that someday, Marinduque will become a world tourist destination not only on Easter Week, but also whole year round. You can do this by telling your friends and relatives about this site. The photo above is Mt Malindig in Torrijos.
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Marinduque Mainland from Tres Reyes Islands

Marinduque Mainland from Tres Reyes Islands
View of Mainland Marinduque from Tres Reyes Islands-Click on Photo to link to Marinduque Awaits You

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Facebook Stock is still going downhill as I predicted

I have been posting several updates on what is going on about FaceBook stocks, since its offerring at $38 per share. I felt at that time that the price was too high and FB stocks was not a good long term investment. So far, I am right on the money. I still will not buy FB stocks until it goes down below $20 per share. Here's the latest news on FB from CNN Money Magazine. Facebook is finally a buy at ..(about $8 per Share?) By Paul R. La Monica May 29, 2012: Are you ready to take a spin? Even though the highest number on a roulette wheel is 36, fund managers say Facebook stock may not get back there anytime soon. Facebook shares continue to plummet. Shares were down nearly 7% Tuesday, falling below the $30 level. The stock is now more than 20% below its offering price of $38. That makes it officially a bear market for the social network. But guess what? It's likely to get worse for Facebook (FB) before it gets better. It's easier to make that case now, since we are starting to get a slow trickle of earnings and revenue forecasts for Facebook. Analysts at firms who were underwriters for the IPO are not allowed to officially start coverage on the stock for another few weeks -- although it looks like bearish remarks from lead banker Morgan Stanley (MS) have already led to shareholder lawsuits. Brokerages that were not part of the Facebook offering are free to issue reports on the stock. Because of the intense interest in Zuckerberg & Co., there already is a critical mass of coverage and earnings estimates. Ten analysts have earnings forecasts for 2012. Related: Wall Street losses mount on Facebook IPO For what it's worth, the median price target on the stock is $42, 40% higher than the current price. Analysts are forecasting earnings growth, on average, over the next three to five years of about 36% a year. In other words, Facebook has a lot to live up to in order to satisfy Wall Street's so-called sell side. That's why many investors are still shying away from the stock. I spoke with four fund managers Tuesday who all have big exposure to the tech sector. Not one of them said they are tempted to buy Facebook's stock yet. They all said the shares remain extremely overvalued. "We have not invested in Facebook. Here's the reason: Growth expectations are high, and the company would have had to do a number things flawlessly to meet them over the next few years. There is no point investing in them this early," said Sunil Reddy, portfolio manager with Apex Capital Management in Dayton, Ohio. Reddy said that he prefers Google (GOOG) to Facebook. Google trades at just 13.7 times 2012 earnings estimates. If you take that multiple and apply it to Facebook's consensus earnings estimate of 55 cents a share for 2012, you get a Facebook stock price of only $7.56! That's nearly 75% below its current price. Facebook's stock has not been well received since its IPO. Some fund managers think the stock could fall a lot more before it becomes a bargain. Of course, that probably is too bearish of a prediction. Facebook is still a solid company with strong growth prospects. It's not a fly-by-night tech destined for obsolescence; it just didn't deserve to be worth more than $100 billion on day 1 as a public company.

1 comment:

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